Sustainable Schools Strategy

Introduction

Norfolk County Council, in collaboration with school leaders, is committed to proactively addressing demographic changes and ensuring the sustainability and effectiveness of schools within local communities. Our Sustainable Schools Strategy is designed to guide the evolution of Norfolk's school landscape, ensuring that every child has access to high-quality education.

The following information gives an overview of this strategy - to read the cabinet paper in full, please click here.

Falling pupil numbers and educational outcomes

The projection of falling pupil numbers in Norfolk is expected to lead to substantial changes within primary schools, with the September 2025 applications for reception places falling below 8,000 compared to a historic peak of 9,350 in 2017.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports a nationwide decrease in family size and an increase in the average age of first-time mothers, suggesting that these changes in birth patterns are unlikely to reverse soon. This trend reflects the national picture and is not expected to change in the years ahead - data from Public Health colleagues predicts that 6,927 children will join reception in Norfolk in September 2028.

As student numbers decrease, schools will need to reduce the number of classes per year group. This may challenge the viability of many small schools, making it harder for their pupils to flourish; while small schools often achieve positive Ofsted outcomes, their average Key Stage 2 results are lower both nationally and in Norfolk, particularly in the smallest schools where multiple year groups are combined.

Parental Choice and excess capacity in the system

Excess capacity allows parents more opportunity to express a school place preference outside their local area or move their child if they are unhappy with the school. There is a balance to be found between increasing healthy competition between schools, enabling choice for families, and maintaining adequate provision for communities. Some communities may see children leaving the area to attend a more popular school, while other villages may have diminishing numbers of children attending the local school, limiting the capacity to deliver effective education and improvement. Importantly, the popularity of schools is not constant - excess capacity may cause schools to face rapid shifts in pupil numbers, making them unsustainable and leaving communities without viable schools.

Strategic Approach

Our strategic approach involves bringing together school and Academy Trust leaders and decision-makers in areas with significant excess school capacity. by using current and projected demographic data alongside school capacity information, we have been able to identify areas where excess capacity may require adjustments to school structures to better meet the needs of children and ensure the best possible education. This collaborative approach is underway, with meetings being held to support the education system to find sustainable solutions. Below is a chart showing the 46 planning areas across Norfolk:

Collaborative and Data-driven Solutions

Our role as a Local Authority is to facilitate guided collaborative working sessions with school and academy leaders, including headteachers, chairs of governors, and multi-academy trust CEOs. These sessions aim to reach a consensus on the challenges and explore solutions that support the best educational outcomes for children. Options include:

• Joining a Multi-Academy Trust (MAT) or federation (link to paper)
• Reviewing planned admission numbers (link to paper)
• Merging or closing schools (link to paper)
• Reviewing catchment areas (link to paper)

It is likely that in most areas, a number of different solutions will need to be planned together, over a period, to result in a school landscape that is sustainable and serves children in communities effectively.

To help the process run as effectively as possible and support these groups to arrive at the best possible outcomes, we have been sharing data and analysis with school and academy leaders, relevant dioceses, and decision-makers. We have collated and provided information including:
 

• school quality and outcomes for learners
• catchment forecasts considering housing developments
• pupil roll forecasts and trends in parental preference
• numbers on roll versus school capacity
• the SEND offer for local children
• childcare and Early Years availability
• transport considerations
•  building conditions

For local authority-maintained schools, capacity, vacancies, recruitment difficulties, and financial projections, are provided by Norfolk County Council, with Multi-Academy Trust leaders conducting similar analyses for their academies.

Locally-focused solutions

In rural communities, it is important to ensure as far as possible that education remains local. This may involve maintaining schools with just two classes, supported by strong federations or multi-academy trusts. As such, there will be an opportunity for us to present options for consideration and explore potential solutions through dialogue with school and academy leaders. The varied nature of Norfolk's population and education landscape means that there is no suggestion of a minimum size of school, or the maximum distance any child should travel, but work on a case-by-case basis to agree the best, balanced solution for each area.

Future Strategy Development

Our strategy is aligned with broader strategic development across Children's Services, and we will continue to develop and refine our approach to ensure it best meets the needs of Norfolk's diverse communities.

Norfolk County Council is dedicated to promoting strong local schools within communities. By working closely with stakeholders, we aim to ensure schools remain viable, high-quality, and responsive to local needs. Our Sustainable Schools Strategy is a collaborative effort to create a sustainable and effective education landscape for all children in Norfolk.